Manila Megaprojects: Are They Built for Locals or Global Investors?
- Mitt Chen
- Aug 13, 2025
- 3 min read
Why the next skyline battle might be fought in peso-denominated debt and Dubai-grade fountains? A client once asked if BGC condos came with a free Filipino passport. I told him: only if you marry the developer’s niece.
The WTF Truth
Manila is in the middle of a $50B urban facelift — glass towers, skybridges, artificial islands, and malls big enough to have their own weather reports. It’s not for the average Filipino commuter stuck on EDSA for three hours a day. It’s for the same crowd who buys $2M Singapore shoeboxes and calls it ‘portfolio diversification.’
Still here? Either you’re late for a condo turnover ceremony or you’re a future Allocaverse villain.
Data Meets Drama
This isn’t just growth — it’s imported aspiration with a credit card limit. Megaproject Pipeline 2025–2030: Over 100 high-rise towers in Metro Manila’s “Golden Triangle” (Makati–BGC–Ortigas) valued at $42B. (Source: Colliers Philippines)
Foreign Capital Surge: 34% of pre-sales in flagship projects went to offshore buyers in 2024 — many purchasing via shell structures or trust agreements.
Local Affordability Gap Median condo price in BGC: PHP 300,000/sqm (~$5,200), while the median household income can finance ~PHP 65,000/sqm. That’s a 4.6x gap.
Infrastructure Mirage Skytrain and Manila Subway are on paper — but condo marketing already shows residents sipping flat whites in “future transit-connected” cafés.
Your train arrives in 2035. Your loan matures in 2034. Coincidence? → Why SEA’s biggest builds start with a promise and a render.
Operator Behavior Case: The Island-Hopping GP
Let’s talk about Rafael “Raf” Del Rosario, a 40-something GP with a background in Dubai retail REITs.
2019: Leaves Dubai, “discovers” the Philippine megaproject scene.
2020: Launches SunPacific Urban Partners, raising $120M from GCC family offices for “transit-oriented luxury residential” in BGC.
Reality: Buys pre-sale blocks at 20% developer discount, flips 30% before turnover to Singaporean and Hong Kong buyers.
2024: Expands into a reclamation island joint venture in Manila Bay, pitching it as “the Monaco of Southeast Asia.”
One LP told me: “We didn’t even visit the site. The renders had yachts.”
If the render has more boats than cars, you’re not buying a home — you’re buying a PowerPoint."
Mitt’s View
Manila’s megaprojects aren’t just property plays — they’re narrative plays. Locals get the commute; foreigners get the skyline.
Local Buyers: Mostly OFW remittances, cash-heavy, often buying smaller units for rental yield.
Foreign Buyers: Buying view corridors and resale potential tied to infrastructure announcements.
This is Dubai 2006 with jeepneys. Developers have learned:
Sell the dream offshore before the foundation is poured.
Use anchor tenants (Apple Store, Nobu Hotel) as proxy guarantees.
Price in the peso, market in the dollar.
🔐 The Vault View
A Vault contributor — a Singapore-based allocator running a $60M “SEA Cityfront” mandate — broke down his current Manila positioning:
Strategy Type | Asset Focus | Exit Plan | IRR Target |
Pre-Sale Block Purchase | BGC luxury high-rise | Flip pre-turnover offshore | 18–22% |
Infrastructure Corridor | Mid-tier Ortigas units | Lease to BPO tenants | 12–15% |
Waterfront Speculative | Manila Bay reclamation plots | Hold 5+ yrs, sell to dev | 25%+ |
It’s not about unit yield — it’s about scarcity signaling. Manila has plenty of land, but only some of it will ever be Instagrammable. Some towers sell views. Others sell visas.
Know the difference → Where property deeds double as a border pass.
Manila Megaproject Buyer Split
Buyer Type | Share of Pre-Sales | Main Driver |
Offshore Investors | 34% | Capital parking, offshore status |
Local HNWIs | 28% | Resale potential, prestige |
OFWs | 22% | Rental yield, family housing |
Developers’ Circles | 16% | Insider discount flips |
If you think Manila’s skyline is being built for the people in traffic below, I have a half-finished tower in Ortigas to sell you. The question isn’t if these megaprojects will complete. It’s who will actually live in them — and whether they’ll be there for the ribbon cutting… or just the resale.
Nice